HLIT
Harmonic Inc.
$10.05
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 78.7% above fair value
You pay
$10.05
Bear
$4.50
Fair
$5.62
Bull
$6.75
Bear
$4.50
-55.2%
$0.25 × 18x P/E
Fair
$5.62
-44.0%
$0.25 × 22x P/E
Bull
$6.75
-32.8%
$0.25 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
0.25$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.25, the base-case value is $5.62 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 43% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples