HLIO
Helios Technologies, Inc.
$67.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.9% above fair value
You pay
$67.86
Bear
$42.59
Fair
$53.06
Bull
$62.66
Bear
$42.59
-37.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$53.06
-21.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$62.66
-7.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$91.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $53.06 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $91.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions