HLIO
Helios Technologies, Inc.
$81.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 46.8% above fair value
You pay
$81.61
Bear
$45.77
Fair
$55.57
Bull
$64.33
Bear
$45.77
-43.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$55.57
-31.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$64.33
-21.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
28.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.7%
vs 6.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $89.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions