HLIO
Helios Technologies, Inc.
$79.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.4% above fair value
You pay
$79.12
Bear
$47.09
Fair
$57.15
Bull
$66.13
Bear
$47.09
-40.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$57.15
-27.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$66.13
-16.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.15 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $82.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions