HLF
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd.
$13.64
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.5% below fair value
You pay
$13.64
Bear
$30.80
Fair
$37.40
Bull
$44.00
Bear
$30.80
+125.7%
$2.20 × 14x P/E
Fair
$37.40
+174.1%
$2.20 × 17x P/E
Bull
$44.00
+222.5%
$2.20 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.2$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.20, the base-case value is $37.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples