HLF
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd.
$11.99
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 66.2% below fair value
You pay
$11.99
Bear
$29.25
Fair
$35.52
Bull
$41.78
Bear
$29.25
+143.9%
$2.45 × 14x P/E
Fair
$35.52
+196.2%
$2.45 × 17x P/E
Bull
$41.78
+248.5%
$2.45 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
4.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 145% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples