HL
Hecla Mining Company
$14.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.0% below fair value
You pay
$14.52
Bear
$10.49
Fair
$16.68
Bull
$23.67
Bear
$10.49
-27.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$16.68
+14.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$23.67
+63.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
32.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.3%
vs 15.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.55 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $22.55 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions