HL
Hecla Mining Company
$15.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 167.5% above fair value
You pay
$15.14
Bear
$5.66
Fair
$5.66
Bull
$6.02
Bear
$5.66
-62.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$5.66
-62.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$6.02
-60.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
30.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.7%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$23.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.66 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $23.44 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions