HKD
AMTD Digital Inc.
$1.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.2% below fair value
You pay
$1.69
Bear
$1.17
Fair
$3.61
Bull
$5.43
Bear
$1.17
-30.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$3.61
+113.8%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$5.43
+221.4%
35% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (30% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
44.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.6%
vs 30.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 30% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.61 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions