HIMX
Himax Technologies, Inc.
$11.65
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.0% below fair value
You pay
$11.65
Bear
$9.60
Fair
$12.80
Bull
$16.00
Bear
$9.60
-17.6%
$0.80 × 12x
Fair
$12.80
+9.9%
$0.80 × 16x
Bull
$16.00
+37.3%
$0.80 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.8$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.80)
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.80 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $12.80 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.4x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing