HIMS
Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
$29.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$32.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 105% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.17 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions