HIG
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
$140.26
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.4% below fair value
Bear
$213.68
+52.3%
ROTCE 17.4% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$213.68
+52.3%
ROTCE 23.2% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$213.68
+52.3%
ROTCE 26.7% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (23.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.33x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.43 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $213.68 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $150.43 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly