HIG
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
$135.12
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.6% below fair value
Bear
$243.69
+80.3%
ROTCE 17.4% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$243.69
+80.3%
ROTCE 23.2% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$243.69
+80.3%
ROTCE 26.7% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
23.2%
7.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (23.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.22x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$147.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
With ROTCE of 23.2% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $60.92 tangible book, implying $243.69 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $147.75 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly