HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings
$284.87
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 12.7% below fair value

You pay $284.87
Bear $200.51
Fair $326.38
Bull $401.90
Bear $200.51 -29.6% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.91x TBV
Fair $326.38 +14.6% ROTCE 11.4% → 1.48x TBV
Bull $401.90 +41.1% ROTCE 13.1% → 1.83x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.29x

Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.48x on $220.02 tangible book, implying $326.38 per share. DDM cross-check: $47.45.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $47.45 (85% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly