HI
Hillenbrand, Inc.
$31.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.1% above fair value
You pay
$31.98
Bear
$10.56
Fair
$15.52
Bull
$19.80
Bear
$10.56
-67.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$15.52
-51.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$19.80
-38.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 5.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$32.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $15.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions