HI
Hillenbrand, Inc.
$31.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 329.4% above fair value
You pay
$31.98
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$7.45
Bull
$22.17
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$7.45
-76.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$22.17
-30.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
32.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 96% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions