HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
$70.00
Stable Earnings Power
60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 122.2% above fair value
You pay
$70.00
Bear
$25.20
Fair
$31.50
Bull
$37.80
Bear
$25.20
-64.0%
$2.10 × 12x P/E
Fair
$31.50
-55.0%
$2.10 × 15x P/E
Bull
$37.80
-46.0%
$2.10 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.1$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$83.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.10, the base-case value is $31.50 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 169% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $83.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples