HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
$63.69
Stable Earnings Power
60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.7% above fair value
You pay
$63.69
Bear
$34.26
Fair
$42.82
Bull
$51.38
Bear
$34.26
-46.2%
$2.11 × 12x P/E
Fair
$42.82
-32.8%
$2.11 × 15x P/E
Bull
$51.38
-19.3%
$2.11 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.82 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 169% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $87.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples