HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
$34.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
You pay
$34.74
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$0.00
Bull
$18.89
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$18.89
-45.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
26.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.7%
vs 9.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$55.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 79% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $55.29 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions