HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
$48.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 301.3% above fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$12.06
-75.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
58.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.25 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.06 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 79% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $48.25 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions