HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
$43.81
Stable Earnings Power
60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.9% above fair value
You pay
$43.81
Bear
$31.32
Fair
$39.15
Bull
$46.98
Bear
$31.32
-28.5%
$1.74 × 18x P/E
Fair
$39.15
-10.6%
$1.74 × 22x P/E
Bull
$46.98
+7.2%
$1.74 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
1.74$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$53.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.74, the base-case value is $39.15 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 96%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples