HG
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
$34.94
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.6% below fair value
Bear
$86.55
+147.7%
ROTCE 17.5% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$86.55
+147.7%
ROTCE 23.3% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$86.55
+147.7%
ROTCE 26.8% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (23.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.41x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.33 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $86.55 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.33 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 181% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly