HG
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
$35.10
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.7% below fair value
Bear
$99.36
+183.1%
ROTCE 17.5% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$99.36
+183.1%
ROTCE 23.3% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$99.36
+183.1%
ROTCE 26.8% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
23.3%
6.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (23.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.41x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$35.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
179%
Summary
With ROTCE of 23.3% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $24.84 tangible book, implying $99.36 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.67 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 179% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly