HES
Hess Corporation
$148.97
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2003.2% above fair value
You pay
$148.97
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$7.08
Bull
$29.30
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $667M × 8x
Fair
$7.08
-95.2%
FCF $952M × 11x
Bull
$29.30
-80.3%
FCF $1238M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
57.0x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $7.08 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $29.30 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential