HELE Helen of Troy Limited
$25.65
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 74.4% below fair value

You pay $25.65
Bear $82.36
Fair $100.01
Bull $117.66
Bear $82.36 +221.1% $7.03 × 14x P/E
Fair $100.01 +289.9% $7.03 × 17x P/E
Bull $117.66 +358.7% $7.03 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.01 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 443% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples