HEI
HEICO Corporation
$298.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.7% below fair value
You pay
$298.58
Bear
$157.10
Fair
$300.57
Bull
$481.60
Bear
$157.10
-47.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$300.57
+0.7%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$481.60
+61.3%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
46.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.1%
vs 20.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$397.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $300.57 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions