HEI
HEICO Corporation
$341.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.2% above fair value
You pay
$341.26
Bear
$152.45
Fair
$286.25
Bull
$451.90
Bear
$152.45
-55.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$286.25
-16.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$451.90
+32.4%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
59.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.4%
vs 19.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $376.00 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $286.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $376.00 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions