HEI-A
HEICO Corporation
$230.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.3% below fair value
You pay
$230.88
Bear
$145.71
Fair
$266.30
Bull
$413.12
Bear
$145.71
-36.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$266.30
+15.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$413.12
+78.9%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
36.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.9%
vs 18.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$403.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $266.30 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $403.33 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions