HE
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.
$8.76
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.8% below fair value
You pay
$8.76
Bear
$25.34
Fair
$28.96
Bull
$32.58
Bear
$25.34
+189.3%
$1.81 × 14x P/E
Fair
$28.96
+230.6%
$1.81 × 16x P/E
Bull
$32.58
+271.9%
$1.81 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.81$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
4.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$8.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
262%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.81, the base-case value is $28.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.16.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 155%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 201% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 262% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples