HE Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.
$13.48
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 50.6% below fair value

You pay $13.48
Bear $23.85
Fair $27.26
Bull $30.67
Bear $23.85 +76.9% $1.94 × 14x P/E
Fair $27.26 +102.2% $1.94 × 16x P/E
Bull $30.67 +127.5% $1.94 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.38 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.26 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 173%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 201% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.38 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 150% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples