HDSN
Hudson Technologies, Inc.
$5.15
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.2% below fair value
You pay
$5.15
Bear
$9.19
Fair
$11.49
Bull
$13.79
Bear
$9.19
+78.5%
$0.69 × 13x P/E
Fair
$11.49
+123.1%
$0.69 × 17x P/E
Bull
$13.79
+167.8%
$0.69 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.7x
0.69$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$8.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.69, the base-case value is $11.49 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 86%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples