HDSN Hudson Technologies, Inc.
$5.06
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 54.0% below fair value

You pay $5.06
Bear $8.79
Fair $10.99
Bull $13.19
Bear $8.79 +73.7% $0.69 × 13x P/E
Fair $10.99 +117.2% $0.69 × 17x P/E
Bull $13.19 +160.7% $0.69 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.99 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 86%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples