HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$458.84
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.8% above fair value
You pay
$458.84
Bear
$340.56
Fair
$425.70
Bull
$510.84
Bear
$340.56
-25.8%
$28.38 × 12x P/E
Fair
$425.70
-7.2%
$28.38 × 15x P/E
Bull
$510.84
+11.3%
$28.38 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
28.38$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$461.12
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $28.38, the base-case value is $425.70 per share. DDM cross-check: $417.67.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples