HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$414.45
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.6% below fair value
You pay
$414.45
Bear
$340.56
Fair
$425.70
Bull
$510.84
Bear
$340.56
-17.8%
$28.38 × 12x P/E
Fair
$425.70
+2.7%
$28.38 × 15x P/E
Bull
$510.84
+23.3%
$28.38 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
28.38$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$455.19
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $28.38, the base-case value is $425.70 per share. DDM cross-check: $417.67.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples