HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$394.07
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.4% below fair value
You pay
$394.07
Bear
$395.83
Fair
$494.79
Bull
$593.74
Bear
$395.83
+0.4%
$32.05 × 12x P/E
Fair
$494.79
+25.6%
$32.05 × 15x P/E
Bull
$593.74
+50.7%
$32.05 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $527.45 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $494.79 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $806.66 (above our primary estimate by 68%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples