HBT
HBT Financial, Inc.
$37.21
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.2% below fair value
You pay
$37.21
Bear
$33.36
Fair
$51.13
Bull
$59.46
Bear
$33.36
-10.3%
ROTCE 10.7% → 2.24x TBV
Fair
$51.13
+37.4%
ROTCE 14.2% → 3.44x TBV
Bull
$59.46
+59.8%
ROTCE 16.4% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
14.2%
7.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.44x on $14.86 tangible book, implying $51.13 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $38.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly