HBT
HBT Financial, Inc.
$28.36
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.2% below fair value
You pay
$28.36
Bear
$33.15
Fair
$50.81
Bull
$61.41
Bear
$33.15
+16.9%
ROTCE 10.7% → 2.12x TBV
Fair
$50.81
+79.2%
ROTCE 14.2% → 3.24x TBV
Bull
$61.41
+116.5%
ROTCE 16.4% → 3.92x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.65x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.81 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly