HBI
Hanesbrands Inc.
$6.47
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 92.7% above fair value
You pay
$6.47
Bear
$2.69
Fair
$3.36
Bull
$4.03
Bear
$2.69
-58.5%
$0.22 × 12x P/E
Fair
$3.36
-48.1%
$0.22 × 15x P/E
Bull
$4.03
-37.7%
$0.22 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.22$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$7.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.22, the base-case value is $3.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $7.25 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples