HBI Hanesbrands Inc.
$6.47
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 61.7% below fair value

You pay $6.47
Bear $13.50
Fair $16.88
Bull $20.25
Bear $13.50 +108.7% $1.40 × 12x P/E
Fair $16.88 +160.8% $1.40 × 15x P/E
Bull $20.25 +213.0% $1.40 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 4.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.25 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.88 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $7.25 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 190% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples