HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
$18.56
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.0% below fair value
You pay
$18.56
Bear
$14.59
Fair
$20.84
Bull
$27.09
Bear
$14.59
-21.4%
ROTCE 9.4% → 0.98x TBV
Fair
$20.84
+12.3%
ROTCE 12.6% → 1.55x TBV
Bull
$27.09
+46.0%
ROTCE 14.5% → 1.89x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (9.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.14x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.29 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.62 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly