HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
$15.92
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.8% below fair value
You pay
$15.92
Bear
$13.39
Fair
$19.13
Bull
$24.87
Bear
$13.39
-15.9%
ROTCE 9.4% → 0.95x TBV
Fair
$19.13
+20.2%
ROTCE 12.6% → 1.51x TBV
Bull
$24.87
+56.2%
ROTCE 14.5% → 1.84x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.43x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.38 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.13 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.52 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly