HAYW
Hayward Holdings, Inc.
$11.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.8% below fair value
You pay
$11.74
Bear
$17.94
Fair
$20.51
Bull
$22.74
Bear
$17.94
+52.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$20.51
+74.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$22.74
+93.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
8.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.8%
vs 5.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$15.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $20.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.75 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions