HAYW
Hayward Holdings, Inc.
$14.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.6% below fair value
You pay
$14.75
Bear
$14.47
Fair
$16.50
Bull
$18.25
Bear
$14.47
-1.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$16.50
+11.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$18.25
+23.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
13.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.2%
vs 5.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.75 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.50 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions