HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.
$40.61
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.9% above fair value
You pay
$40.61
Bear
$16.24
Fair
$23.21
Bull
$30.19
Bear
$16.24
-60.0%
ROTCE 5.4% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$23.21
-42.8%
ROTCE 7.2% → 0.38x TBV
Bull
$30.19
-25.7%
ROTCE 8.2% → 0.51x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.2%) vs. cost of equity (12.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.02x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.21 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.2%) is below the minimum investors require (12.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly