HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.
$36.77
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.4% below fair value
You pay
$36.77
Bear
$25.84
Fair
$36.92
Bull
$48.00
Bear
$25.84
-29.7%
ROTCE 5.4% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$36.92
+0.4%
ROTCE 7.2% → 0.39x TBV
Bull
$48.00
+30.5%
ROTCE 8.2% → 0.52x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
12.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.2%) vs. cost of equity (12.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.83x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$50.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
With ROTCE of 7.2% vs. 12.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.39x on $20.15 tangible book, implying $36.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $18.80.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.2%) is below the minimum investors require (12.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.80 (49% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.17 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly