HASI HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.
$40.61
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 74.9% above fair value

You pay $40.61
Bear $16.24
Fair $23.21
Bull $30.19
Bear $16.24 -60.0% ROTCE 5.4% → 0.30x TBV
Fair $23.21 -42.8% ROTCE 7.2% → 0.38x TBV
Bull $30.19 -25.7% ROTCE 8.2% → 0.51x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.2%) vs. cost of equity (12.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.02x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.21 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.2%) is below the minimum investors require (12.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly