HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.
$38.42
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 63.0% above fair value
You pay
$38.42
Bear
$16.49
Fair
$23.57
Bull
$30.65
Bear
$16.49
-57.1%
ROTCE 5.4% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$23.57
-38.6%
ROTCE 7.2% → 0.39x TBV
Bull
$30.65
-20.2%
ROTCE 8.2% → 0.52x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.2%) vs. cost of equity (12.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.91x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.43 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.57 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.2%) is below the minimum investors require (12.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.43 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly