HAS Hasbro, Inc.
$88.10
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 43.1% above fair value

You pay $88.10
Bear $49.26
Fair $61.57
Bull $73.89
Bear $49.26 -44.1% $2.75 × 12x P/E
Fair $61.57 -30.1% $2.75 × 15x P/E
Bull $73.89 -16.1% $2.75 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.00 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.57 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $109.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples