HAS
Hasbro, Inc.
$88.10
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.1% above fair value
You pay
$88.10
Bear
$49.26
Fair
$61.57
Bull
$73.89
Bear
$49.26
-44.1%
$2.75 × 12x P/E
Fair
$61.57
-30.1%
$2.75 × 15x P/E
Bull
$73.89
-16.1%
$2.75 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.00 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $109.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples