HAS
Hasbro, Inc.
$92.50
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 319.5% above fair value
You pay
$92.50
Bear
$17.64
Fair
$22.05
Bull
$26.46
Bear
$17.64
-80.9%
$1.47 × 12x P/E
Fair
$22.05
-76.2%
$1.47 × 15x P/E
Bull
$26.46
-71.4%
$1.47 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.47$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
62.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$107.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.47, the base-case value is $22.05 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.40.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $40.40 (above our primary estimate by 83%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $107.60 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples