HALO
Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.
$77.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.2% below fair value
You pay
$77.82
Bear
$60.24
Fair
$81.25
Bull
$100.87
Bear
$60.24
-22.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$81.25
+4.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$100.87
+29.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
18.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.0%
vs 8.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.25 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.25 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions