HALMY
Halma plc
$125.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 78.5% above fair value
You pay
$125.70
Bear
$48.13
Fair
$70.41
Bull
$93.40
Bear
$48.13
-61.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$70.41
-44.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$93.40
-25.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
43.6x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $70.41 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from GBP into USD using GBPUSD at 1.3475 USD per GBP.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions