HALFF
HAL Trust
$182.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 79.6% below fair value
You pay
$182.13
Bear
$501.69
Fair
$892.74
Bull
$1,375.13
Bear
$501.69
+175.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$892.74
+390.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,375.13
+655.0%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.5%
vs 19.2% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $892.74 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1234 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions