HAL
Halliburton Company
$33.99
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.9% above fair value
You pay
$33.99
Bear
$10.83
Fair
$22.98
Bull
$38.26
Bear
$10.83
-68.1%
FCF $1495M × 10x
Fair
$22.98
-32.4%
FCF $1929M × 13x
Bull
$38.26
+12.6%
FCF $2363M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (64 analysts)
$43.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $22.98 per share. Range: $10.83 (bear) to $38.26 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.20 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential