H
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
$184.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 102.2% above fair value
You pay
$184.72
Bear
$48.29
Fair
$91.35
Bull
$133.39
Bear
$48.29
-73.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$91.35
-50.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$133.39
-27.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
48.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.7%
vs 10.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $194.92 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $194.92 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions