H
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
$174.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 92.7% above fair value
You pay
$174.15
Bear
$47.77
Fair
$90.36
Bull
$131.93
Bear
$47.77
-72.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$90.36
-48.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$131.93
-24.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
45.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $191.60 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $191.60 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions