H
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
$163.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11023.4% above fair value
You pay
$163.07
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$1.47
Bull
$10.60
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1.47
-99.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$10.60
-93.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
88.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
31.1%
vs 9.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$197.69
Divergence from AlphaVal
99%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $197.69 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions