H
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
$171.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9522.0% above fair value
You pay
$171.96
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$1.79
Bull
$11.15
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1.79
-99.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$11.15
-93.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
91.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
31.6%
vs 9.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$199.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
99%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $199.75 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions