GTX Garrett Motion Inc.
$33.29
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 50.2% below fair value

You pay $33.29
Bear $56.62
Fair $66.91
Bull $77.21
Bear $56.62 +70.1% $2.89 × 22x P/E
Fair $66.91 +101.0% $2.89 × 26x P/E
Bull $77.21 +131.9% $2.89 × 30x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.91 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 90%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 121% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples