GTX
Garrett Motion Inc.
$21.69
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.1% below fair value
You pay
$21.69
Bear
$41.84
Fair
$49.45
Bull
$57.06
Bear
$41.84
+92.9%
$1.90 × 22x P/E
Fair
$49.45
+128.0%
$1.90 × 26x P/E
Bull
$57.06
+163.1%
$1.90 × 30x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
26.0x
1.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Applying a 26x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.90, the base-case value is $49.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $38.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples