GTLS
Chart Industries, Inc.
$207.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 257.7% above fair value
You pay
$207.96
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$58.14
Bull
$12.91
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$58.14
-72.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$12.91
-93.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
65.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $193.81 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.14 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $193.81 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions