GTLS
Chart Industries, Inc.
$209.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 112.3% above fair value
You pay
$209.90
Bear
$80.97
Fair
$98.85
Bull
$116.21
Bear
$80.97
-61.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$98.85
-52.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$116.21
-44.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.6%
vs 4.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$193.81
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $98.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $193.81 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions