GTBIF
Green Thumb Industries Inc.
$6.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.2% below fair value
You pay
$6.21
Bear
$12.45
Fair
$16.88
Bull
$21.19
Bear
$12.45
+100.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$16.88
+171.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$21.19
+241.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
8.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.9%
vs 9.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $16.88 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions