GTBIF
Green Thumb Industries Inc.
$7.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.2% below fair value
You pay
$7.14
Bear
$12.42
Fair
$15.95
Bull
$19.23
Bear
$12.42
+73.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$15.95
+123.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$19.23
+169.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.20 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.95 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.20 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions