GSL
Global Ship Lease, Inc.
$41.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 77.4% below fair value
You pay
$41.83
Bear
$148.54
Fair
$184.75
Bull
$217.80
Bear
$148.54
+255.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$184.75
+341.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$217.80
+420.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
4.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-13.4%
vs 7.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
270%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $184.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 270% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions