GSK GSK plc
$53.71
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 46.6% below fair value

You pay $53.71
Bear $86.17
Fair $100.53
Bull $114.89
Bear $86.17 +60.4% $8.33 × 12x P/E
Fair $100.53 +87.2% $8.33 × 14x P/E
Bull $114.89 +113.9% $8.33 × 16x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.45 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.53 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $52.45 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 122% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from GBP into USD using GBPUSD at 1.3291 USD per GBP.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples