GSBC
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.
$78.67
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.8% below fair value
You pay
$78.67
Bear
$82.99
Fair
$135.27
Bull
$166.63
Bear
$82.99
+5.5%
ROTCE 8.5% → 1.44x TBV
Fair
$135.27
+71.9%
ROTCE 11.3% → 2.35x TBV
Bull
$166.63
+111.8%
ROTCE 13.0% → 2.90x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.3%
7.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.3%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.37x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$62.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
118%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.3% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.35x on $57.51 tangible book, implying $135.27 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.61.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $43.61 (68% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $62.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 118% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly