GSBC
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.
$70.93
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.8% below fair value
You pay
$70.93
Bear
$73.54
Fair
$119.86
Bull
$147.64
Bear
$73.54
+3.7%
ROTCE 8.5% → 1.43x TBV
Fair
$119.86
+69.0%
ROTCE 11.3% → 2.34x TBV
Bull
$147.64
+108.2%
ROTCE 13.0% → 2.88x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.3%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.23x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.86 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $48.67 (64% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $62.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 117% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly