GSBC
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.
$76.75
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.4% below fair value
You pay
$76.75
Bear
$81.70
Fair
$133.15
Bull
$164.03
Bear
$81.70
+6.5%
ROTCE 8.5% → 1.42x TBV
Fair
$133.15
+73.5%
ROTCE 11.3% → 2.32x TBV
Bull
$164.03
+113.7%
ROTCE 13.0% → 2.85x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.3%
7.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.3%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.33x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$62.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
115%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.3% vs. 7.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.32x on $57.51 tangible book, implying $133.15 per share. DDM cross-check: $37.81.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $37.81 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $62.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 115% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly