GRBK
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
$66.33
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 68.0% below fair value
You pay
$66.33
Bear
$106.83
Fair
$207.47
Bull
$339.15
Bear
$106.83
+61.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$207.47
+212.8%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$339.15
+411.3%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
15.1x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $207.47 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions