GRBK
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
$70.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.8% below fair value
You pay
$70.96
Bear
$106.83
Fair
$207.48
Bull
$339.16
Bear
$106.83
+50.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$207.48
+192.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$339.16
+378.0%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.8%
vs 22.1% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $207.48 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions