GRBK
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
$64.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.1% above fair value
You pay
$64.08
Bear
$49.65
Fair
$49.65
Bull
$53.09
Bear
$49.65
-22.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$49.65
-22.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$53.09
-17.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.4%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $49.65 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions