GPOR
Gulfport Energy Corp
$164.81
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.1% above fair value
You pay
$164.81
Bear
$56.64
Fair
$151.07
Bull
$276.97
Bear
$56.64
-65.6%
FCF $220M × 8x
Fair
$151.07
-8.3%
FCF $314M × 11x
Bull
$276.97
+68.1%
FCF $408M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$202.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $151.07 per share. Range: $56.64 (bear) to $276.97 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $202.80 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential