GPOR
Gulfport Energy Corporation
$178.22
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.1% above fair value
You pay
$178.22
Bear
$52.37
Fair
$149.62
Bull
$279.28
Bear
$52.37
-70.6%
FCF $193M × 8x
Fair
$149.62
-16.0%
FCF $276M × 11x
Bull
$279.28
+56.7%
FCF $358M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $238.33 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $149.62 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -75%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $238.33 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential