GOOG
Alphabet Inc.
$344.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.6% above fair value
You pay
$344.59
Bear
$167.30
Fair
$295.51
Bull
$454.25
Bear
$167.30
-51.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$295.51
-14.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$454.25
+31.8%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
51.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.5%
vs 19.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (79 analysts)
$431.41
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $295.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $431.41 (from 79 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions