GOLF
Acushnet Holdings Corp.
$80.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 221.4% above fair value
You pay
$80.25
Bear
$17.19
Fair
$24.97
Bull
$32.01
Bear
$17.19
-78.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.97
-68.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$32.01
-60.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
39.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.0%
vs 6.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$91.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
73%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $91.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions