GOLF
Acushnet Holdings Corp.
$88.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 177.7% above fair value
You pay
$88.43
Bear
$17.09
Fair
$31.85
Bull
$45.14
Bear
$17.09
-80.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.85
-64.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$45.14
-49.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
62.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.75 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $94.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions