GOLF
Acushnet Holdings Corp.
$115.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 246.8% above fair value
You pay
$115.55
Bear
$17.59
Fair
$33.32
Bull
$47.80
Bear
$17.59
-84.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$33.32
-71.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$47.80
-58.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
79.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.3%
vs 7.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.75 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $94.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions