GOLF
Acushnet Holdings Corp.
$86.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 233.0% above fair value
You pay
$86.39
Bear
$17.64
Fair
$25.94
Bull
$33.51
Bear
$17.64
-79.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$25.94
-70.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$33.51
-61.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
41.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.9%
vs 7.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$96.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
73%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $25.94 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $96.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions