GO
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
$11.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
41.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.7%
vs 9.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$10.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $10.80 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions