GNTY
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.
$48.75
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.2% below fair value
You pay
$48.75
Bear
$34.99
Fair
$57.52
Bull
$71.05
Bear
$34.99
-28.2%
ROTCE 8.3% → 1.53x TBV
Fair
$57.52
+18.0%
ROTCE 11.1% → 2.51x TBV
Bull
$71.05
+45.7%
ROTCE 12.7% → 3.10x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.94x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.52 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly