GNTY
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.
$48.75
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.8% below fair value
You pay
$48.75
Bear
$38.41
Fair
$63.15
Bull
$78.00
Bear
$38.41
-21.2%
ROTCE 8.3% → 1.53x TBV
Fair
$63.15
+29.5%
ROTCE 11.1% → 2.51x TBV
Bull
$78.00
+60.0%
ROTCE 12.7% → 3.10x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.1%
6.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.94x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.1% vs. 6.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.51x on $25.15 tangible book, implying $63.15 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly