GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Limited
$23.39
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 52.8% below fair value

You pay $23.39
Bear $39.62
Fair $49.52
Bull $59.42
Bear $39.62 +69.4% $3.70 × 12x P/E
Fair $49.52 +111.7% $3.70 × 15x P/E
Bull $59.42 +154.0% $3.70 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.52 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $29.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples