GNK
Genco Shipping & Trading Limited
$23.39
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.8% below fair value
You pay
$23.39
Bear
$39.62
Fair
$49.52
Bull
$59.42
Bear
$39.62
+69.4%
$3.70 × 12x P/E
Fair
$49.52
+111.7%
$3.70 × 15x P/E
Bull
$59.42
+154.0%
$3.70 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $29.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples