GLW
Corning Inc
$127.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 573.9% above fair value
You pay
$127.80
Bear
$13.78
Fair
$18.96
Bull
$23.63
Bear
$13.78
-89.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.96
-85.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$23.63
-81.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
80.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.5%
vs 6.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$171.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
89%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $18.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $171.25 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions