GLW Corning Inc
$166.36
Platform & Compounding FCF 50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 777.2% above fair value

You pay $166.36
Bear $13.78
Fair $18.96
Bull $23.63
Bear $13.78 -91.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $18.96 -88.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $23.63 -85.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 102.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.8% vs 6.7% base

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (37 analysts) $179.29
Divergence from AlphaVal 89%

Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $18.96 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $179.29 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions