GLW
Corning Incorporated
$194.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 223.7% above fair value
You pay
$194.05
Bear
$41.18
Fair
$59.94
Bull
$76.82
Bear
$41.18
-78.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$59.94
-69.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$76.82
-60.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
146.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $168.56 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.94 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $168.56 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions