GLW
Corning Inc
$169.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 149.5% above fair value
You pay
$169.15
Bear
$46.59
Fair
$67.81
Bull
$86.90
Bear
$46.59
-72.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.81
-59.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$86.90
-48.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
128.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
33.9%
vs 6.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $194.78 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $194.78 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions