GLPI
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.
$43.71
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.2% below fair value
You pay
$43.71
Bear
$117.97
Fair
$141.85
Bull
$165.73
Bear
$117.97
+169.9%
$3.91 FFO × 22x
Fair
$141.85
+224.5%
$3.91 FFO × 27x
Bull
$165.73
+279.1%
$3.91 FFO × 32x
Adjust Assumptions
27.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.91) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
11.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
184%
Summary
At $3.91 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $141.85 per share. Dividend yield: 7.2%. DDM cross-check: $226.37.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $226.37 (60% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 184% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify