GLPI
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.
$37.91
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 73.0% below fair value
You pay
$37.91
Bear
$116.66
Fair
$140.31
Bull
$163.96
Bear
$116.66
+207.7%
$3.91 FFO × 22x
Fair
$140.31
+270.1%
$3.91 FFO × 27x
Bull
$163.96
+332.5%
$3.91 FFO × 32x
Adjust Assumptions
27.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.91) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
9.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$47.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
193%
Summary
At $3.91 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $140.31 per share. Dividend yield: 8.4%. DDM cross-check: $221.23.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 8.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $221.23 (58% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.89 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 193% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify