GLNG
Golar LNG Limited
$48.10
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 274.0% above fair value
You pay
$48.10
Bear
$10.29
Fair
$12.86
Bull
$15.43
Bear
$10.29
-78.6%
$0.65 × 16x P/E
Fair
$12.86
-73.3%
$0.65 × 20x P/E
Bull
$15.43
-67.9%
$0.65 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
19.8x
0.65$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
74.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (48 analysts)
$68.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Summary
Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.65, the base-case value is $12.86 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 154% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.67 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples