GIII
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
$27.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.0% below fair value
You pay
$27.62
Bear
$85.62
Fair
$106.20
Bull
$125.14
Bear
$85.62
+210.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$106.20
+284.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$125.14
+353.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
4.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-13.4%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$37.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
184%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $106.20 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 43% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.33 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 184% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions