GIII
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
$30.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 67.5% below fair value
You pay
$30.82
Bear
$76.47
Fair
$94.91
Bull
$111.88
Bear
$76.47
+148.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$94.91
+208.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$111.88
+263.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
4.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $33.75 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $33.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 242% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions