GIII
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
$29.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.4% below fair value
You pay
$29.85
Bear
$84.25
Fair
$104.50
Bull
$123.14
Bear
$84.25
+182.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$104.50
+250.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$123.14
+312.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
4.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-11.7%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$34.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
201%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $104.50 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 43% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 201% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions