GIC
Global Industrial Company
$29.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.0% above fair value
You pay
$29.74
Bear
$23.36
Fair
$28.05
Bull
$32.20
Bear
$23.36
-21.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.05
-5.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$32.20
+8.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.05 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions