GIC
Global Industrial Co
$42.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 53.0% above fair value
You pay
$42.95
Bear
$23.39
Fair
$28.08
Bull
$32.23
Bear
$23.39
-45.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.08
-34.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$32.23
-25.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.6%
vs 6.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.08 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions