GIC
Global Industrial Co
$33.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.1% above fair value
You pay
$33.68
Bear
$23.36
Fair
$28.05
Bull
$32.20
Bear
$23.36
-30.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.05
-16.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$32.20
-4.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
19.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.4%
vs 6.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.05 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions