GFL
GFL Environmental Inc.
$45.56
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.0% below fair value
You pay
$45.56
Bear
$63.34
Fair
$89.26
Bull
$114.39
Bear
$63.34
+39.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$89.26
+95.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$114.39
+151.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.2%
vs 9.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$58.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $89.26 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 17% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7142 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions